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Over the past five years, the number of children in primary classrooms has steadily decreased from a peak of 4.7 million. According to forecasts by the Education Policy Institute (EPI), this trend will continue, with primary school enrolment expected to drop to 4.06 million by 2028-29.
Secondary school numbers will also decline, and some areas may face the possibility of school amalgamation or closure.
Despite these challenges, funding—based on the previous year’s pupil figures—is projected to rise to £42.7 billion in 2024-25. However, uncertainties remain regarding future funding increases. Even if the government raises per-pupil rates annually by 0.5%, the overall school funding pot could still decrease to £41.6 billion by 2029
Currently, total funding for primary schools is 5.9% higher than that for secondary schools. However, EPI projections reveal that as primary school numbers decline, secondary schools will overtake them in funding by 2026-27.
Both primary and secondary schools are expected to experience a downward trend in funding. The analysis is based on the schools’ block budget, and EPI emphasises that the projected changes in pupil population pose significant policy challenges for future governments.
The EPI report highlights that primary school funding will be affected across all regions over the next six years. The North East will face the most substantial decrease, with a 9% reduction. Additionally, London and Yorkshire and the Humber will see primary funding squeezed by more than 8%.
At the secondary level, only Yorkshire and the Humber (0.1%), the northeast (1.2%), and London (2.5%) are expected to witness funding decreases.
Policymakers might now explore how to redistribute savings resulting from falling rolls. One approach is to reinvest these savings by increasing the basic entitlement factor that schools receive for each pupil through the National Funding Formula (NFF). Under this scenario, per-pupil funding could rise by an additional £167 for primary children and £143 for secondary students by 2030.
Interestingly, the East Midlands would benefit the most from this funding lift, while London would be impacted the least.
However, any reallocation of funds must consider the impact on schools with varying levels of deprivation, mobility, and prior attainment. A smaller proportion of the NFF is currently allocated through deprivation and additional needs factors. Savings could also be used to boost pupil premium or address other deprivation-related challenges.
Schools in urban areas, particularly London, may face decreases in pupil numbers and an increase in deprivation rates. Balancing funding priorities is crucial to prevent further widening of the disadvantage gap and ensure that school budgets meet the additional needs of disadvantaged pupils.
